Evidence
Notes on how work adapts to AI, what counts as proof, and what the data actually supports. Every claim is labeled by evidentiary strength: replicated (multiple independent studies), single-source (one credible study), or emerging (early, AI-specific, not yet replicated). We hold ourselves to the same label.
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The adaptation gap
Every headline figure about AI at work measures whether people use it; almost none measure what changed in the work, and the second number has not moved since 2024.
September 2026 single-source
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It fails at the manager
Four independent 2026 studies find managers underprepared to carry AI-era change to their teams, and executives unaware of it — a critical constraint, and the least observed one.
September 2026 replicated
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The Evidence Ladder
A working standard for what counts as proof that work changed — six rungs, a hard line between counted and demonstrated, and an argument for why the top two require observation.
September 2026 emerging
In development
The Work Adaptation Baseline
A first independent study of what changes in the work once AI arrives, measured against the Evidence Ladder. Participants are recruited separately from any TalentVector customer, under their own consent.